Trump cements lead in swing states over Biden - new poll | 19 July 2024 | New battleground-state polling from Rasmussen Reports shows Joe Biden poised to lose the battle of the ballot box if he's still a candidate in November. And if Biden goes down, the data show, he will take Capitol Hill Democrats along with him. Donald Trump's favorite pollster surveyed 5,605 likely voters in swing states from July 5 to 12 - meaning the survey ended the day before a sniper's assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania rally last Saturday... It draws the conclusion that in these bellwether states [Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin] will decide the Electoral College, everything is going the way of the Trump-Vance campaign. It doesn't matter whether a two-way race is polled or a scenario including marginal candidates - Trump is ahead comfortably either way.