Trump takes the lead in six swing states, new polls show | 1 Sept 2024 | The latest polling suggests that Kamala Harris has received little to no convention boost, showing Donald Trump ahead of the vice president in several crucial swing states. A Trafalgar Group survey of seven of the toughest contests — considered by experts to be Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada — show Trump either in the lead or even with Harris. Trump leads Harris 47% to 45% in Pennsylvania and 47% to 46% in Wisconsin, two states that flipped to red in 2016 when Trump won before flipping back to Democrats in 2020 when he lost to Joe Biden.